Republican nominee Donald Trump has beaten Vice President Kamala Harris in election forecasts, according to a poll. The model shows Trump has a 52% chance of winning, while Harris has a 42% chance. Since late August, Harris’s odds have been between 54% and 56%, with Trump between 44% and 46%. But since early October, the dynamics have begun to shift, with the odds closer to 50%.
On October 17, the models projected the two candidates to be even, but on October 20, Trump took the lead. The shift coincides with improved polling for Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously leaned toward Harris. Trump also has a slight advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Pennsylvania is the only one of the seven swing states that continues to lean toward Kamala Harris in the poll average. Still, the race remains tight, with polls in all of these states projected to be within the margin of error, meaning the results could change. These states are crucial to determining who will secure the necessary 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to reach that number.
The Hill reported that more than 1 million Americans have cast early ballots in North Carolina. According to the state’s Board of Elections, 1,008,123 ballots have been cast, including 916,433 in-person early voting, 77,831 civilian absentee voting, and about 14,000 military or overseas absentee voting. That’s about 13% of the 7.8 million registered voters. Board Director Karen Brinson Bell thanked election workers for their efforts, emphasizing the importance of voters’ votes.
GOP Lawsuit
Last month, North Carolina’s election board faced a Republican lawsuit targeting digital voting ID cards. State judges dismissed the case, saying the law does not prohibit their use. Additionally, ballot distribution has been delayed after a successful lawsuit sought to reprint ballots to remove Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name. Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by 0.7 percentage points in the state, according to The Hill/Decision Desk polling average. The situation highlights additional challenges facing North Carolina’s election as both candidates seek to secure votes in a volatile environment.
Harris’s remarks after Trump’s harsh language at a rally
Vice President Kamala Harris has questioned Donald Trump’s ability to serve as president, calling his comments “demeaning” the office. Her comments came after Trump used harsh language at a rally in Pennsylvania, where he directly insulted her. In an interview on MSNBC, Harris said Trump’s comments were “an insult to the office of the president” and damaged the moral authority of the United States internationally. During the rally, Trump called Harris a “failed vice president” and urged the crowd to send a negative message about her at the ballot box. The increasingly heated attacks reflect the intensity of the rivalry between candidates and its impact on the election landscape.
Kamala Harris has insisted that Donald Trump should not be allowed to lead the country again. Harris pressed her Republican opponent, citing a report that an “exhausted” Trump is canceling public appearances. Speaking to reporters, Harris said Trump’s team was suggesting he was exhausted, after he refused to participate in a debate and other events. “Being the president of the United States is one of the hardest jobs in the world,” she said. “So you have to ask yourself: If he’s exhausted on campaign trail, is he fit for the job?
US-China economic tensions
Donald Trump, 78, has backed out of several recent interviews and public appearances, citing “scheduling conflicts.” However, he still sticks to interviews with conservative media outlets, which have met with little resistance. At a recent town hall, Trump stopped taking questions and began dancing to music for 40 minutes. He also witnessed a rally in Michigan on Friday night, where Trump wandered aimlessly on stage for 20 minutes after his microphone went off. These actions reflect the continuing pressures Trump is facing, raising questions about his ability to handle the demands of a campaign.
As November 5 approaches, Latin America is watching the impact of the U.S. presidential election on trade and tariffs. The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump defines the election, carrying significant implications for the region’s economies. Trade, tariffs, and U.S. monetary policy on global interest rates will serve as key channels of influence.
Economic tensions between the United States and China remain of particular concern to countries such as Mexico and Brazil, with the potential for increased volatility depending on the outcome of the election. If Trump wins, there could be major changes that will weigh on currencies and central banks in the region.
Trump has proposed high tariffs, such as a 200% tariff on cars imported from Mexico, raising concerns about the impact on trade. Analysts have suggested that a Trump presidency could lead to greater scrutiny of trade with Mexico. In contrast, a Harris win could reduce the risk of tariffs and boost growth in the US, benefiting emerging markets. While Mexico’s industrial economy could face challenges under Trump, commodity countries could benefit from shifting trade dynamics.
10% tax on remittances to the US
Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, has proposed a 10% tax on remittances to the United States. This measure could hit countries like Honduras and El Salvador hard, which rely on such funds for a large percentage of their GDP. Mexico, the region’s largest recipient of remittances, could see a loss of more than $6 billion annually as a result of the policy. During the 2018 trade dispute, China turned to Brazil for soybeans, making Brazil China’s largest trading partner.
Brazil could benefit from the trade redirection that comes as a result of the trade war dynamics, analysts say. The election outcome will impact U.S. fiscal policy, with Trump likely increasing the budget deficit more than a Harris administration. This difference will lead to higher inflation and interest rates. These changes could have a negative impact on financial assets in Latin America. Finally, Argentine President Javier Milei, known for his Trump-like style, could receive additional support from the United States if Trump wins, especially in Argentina’s efforts with the International Monetary Fund.
