decreased significantly in December 2024 compared to the previous month, according to preliminary estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This article reviews the changes in retail trade in the member states, focusing on the factors that contributed to these changes.
Retail trade volumes decreased in December 2024
In December 2024, the euro area recorded a 0.2% decrease in seasonally adjusted retail trade volumes, while the EU recorded a 0.3% decrease. These decreases indicate that the markets experienced a slight decline in sales volumes at the end of the year. In contrast, the market performance in November 2024 was more stable, with no change in retail trade volumes in the euro area, while they increased by 0.1% in the EU. These changes indicate some volatility in demand for goods and services in both areas.
On the other hand, compared to December 2023, the data showed a slight improvement in retail trade on an annual basis. The calendar-adjusted retail sales index rose by 1.9% in the euro area and 2.0% in the EU. This increase suggests that the overall trend in 2024 was more positive than in 2023, despite the slowdown in December.
Monthly comparison by retail sector
When looking at the sectoral performance of retail trade in December 2024 compared to November of the same year, there was a marked divergence in the prices of some goods. In the euro area, food, beverages and tobacco prices fell by 0.7%, indicating a decline in demand for these products. In contrast, prices for non-food products rose by 0.3%, while prices for motor fuels rose by 0.2%, indicating that demand for some other goods improved slightly.
Changes in Member States
In the EU, food, beverages and tobacco prices fell by 0.4%, while non-food prices rose by 0.3%. On the other hand, motor fuel prices in specialist stores fell by 0.3%. This decline in food and beverage prices is due to economic and inflationary factors in some markets, which affected consumers’ ability to spend on these essential goods.
Among EU member states, there were notable differences in retail trade volumes. Slovenia recorded the largest monthly declines in total retail trade volumes, down 2.2%. This was followed by Germany, which saw a decline of 1.6%, and Poland, which recorded a decline of 1.5%. These declines show that some countries that had previously been experiencing growth began to face challenges at the end of the year.
In contrast, other countries saw increases in retail trade in the same period. Slovakia led the way, with an increase of 8.2%, followed by Finland, which increased by 2.1%, and Spain, which increased by 1.4%. These increases in some countries reflect the recovery of markets from previous economic crises or improved demand in some sectors.
Annual Retail Analysis
When comparing retail performance in December 2024 with the same month of the previous year (December 2023), it appears that prices in the food, beverages and tobacco sector have increased slightly. In the euro area, prices for these products increased by 0.2%, while in the European Union, prices increased by 0.4%. This indicates relative stability in prices despite ongoing economic pressures.
As for non-food products (excluding motor fuel), their prices increased more significantly. In the euro area, prices for these products increased by 3.1%, while in the European Union, they increased by 3.4%. These increases reflect the continued demand for non-food goods, which may be linked to improved income levels in some countries.
Variation between member states in annual performance
Motor fuel prices in specialist stores also rose by 1.2% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU. Although this increase may be slight, it indicates relative stability in the markets for fuel and automotive products.
In terms of annual performance, some EU member states recorded significant increases in retail volumes. In Slovakia, the largest increase was recorded at 10.0%, followed by Lithuania with an increase of 8.7% and Luxembourg with an increase of 8.4%. These increases indicate an improvement in economic activity in these countries, which may be the result of a gradual recovery in the global economy.
On the other hand, other countries saw significant declines in retail volumes. Slovenia recorded a decrease of 3.1%, followed by Belgium with a decrease of 2.4% and Poland with a decrease of 0.5%. These decreases reflect the more challenging economic conditions that some markets in the EU may be facing.
Revisions to previous data
The data for previous months announced in a previous press release have been revised, including monthly and annual changes. The monthly percentage change for November 2024 has been revised, with the previous estimate of an increase of 0.1% in the euro area, while it has been revised to 0.0%. In the European Union, the estimate has been revised from an increase of 0.2% to 0.1%. The annual percentage change in November has also been revised. With the estimate revised from +1.2% to +1.6% in the euro area and from +1.5% to +1.8% in the European Union.
Reasons for declines in retail trade
The main reasons for the decline in retail trade volume in some countries are due to global economic factors. High inflation rates, increased energy prices, and the effects of climate change are all factors that have affected consumer spending.
Retail trade outlook
The increase in the prices of basic goods such as food and beverages is another reason for the decline in retail trade volume. As prices rise, households are less able to spend on non-essential goods, leading to a decline in retail sales.
Retail trade in the EU and the euro area is expected to remain under pressure in the coming period. As the impact of high inflation and economic instability in some countries will continue to affect consumer spending. However, some countries may see an improvement in performance thanks to a gradual recovery in certain sectors. Ssuch as non-food products and fuel.
Retail trade is an important indicator of the strength of the economy in the euro area and the European Union. Despite the challenges facing some countries, there are opportunities for growth and improvement in markets that enjoy economic stability.
