Monthly real GDP is expected to grow by 0.5% in February 2025, with growth across all major sectors, after January 2025 which saw no growth (revised from a 0.1% decline in our previous publication).
Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6% in the three months ending February 2025, compared to the three months ending November 2024, mainly due to the growth of the services sector.
Monthly output of services grew by 0.3% in February 2025, following unadjusted growth of 0.1% in January 2025, and grew by 0.6% in the three months ending February 2025.
Output grew by 1.5% in February 2025, following a 0.5% decline in January 2025 (revised from a 0.9% decline in our previous post), and grew by 0.7% in the three months ending February 2025, as manufacturing output contributed to monthly growth and growth over the three months..
Construction output grew by 0.4% in February 2025, after declining by 0.3% in January 2025 (revised downwards from a 0.2% decline in our previous post), but showed no growth in the three months ending February 2025.
Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2025, with growth in all major sectors, after January 2025 which showed no growth (revised upwards from a 0.1% decline in our previous post).
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months ending February 2025, compared to the three months ending November 2024, mainly due to the services sector’s growth of 0.6%. The output of the production sector in this period increased by 0.7%, while the construction sector showed no growth.
What external factors do you think affect UK GDP per month?
GDP is influenced by a variety of external factors, including:
Global trade and trade agreements: As a major exporter, especially of natural resources, Canada is sensitive to global demand, especially from major trading partners such as the United States and China. Changes in global trading conditions or tariffs can affect exports, which in turn affects GDP.
Commodity prices: Britain is a large exporter of commodities, including oil, natural gas and metals. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can have a significant impact on GDP and the pound. For example, lower oil prices could weaken the Canadian dollar, as oil is one of Canada’s largest export products.
U.S. Economic Performance: The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner. Economic conditions in the United States, such as growth rates, interest rates, and inflation, can affect Canadian exports and the Canadian dollar. The stronger U.S. economy tends to boost demand for Canadian goods and services, strengthening the Canadian dollar.
Global Economic Conditions: In times of global economic uncertainty, such as recessions or trade tensions, investors may seek safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, which could weaken the dollar. Conversely, strong global growth often supports demand for Canadian exports and strengthens the dollar.
China’s Economic Influence: As a major consumer of commodities, especially oil and metals, China’s economic growth directly affects Canada’s export earnings. A slowdown in China’s economy could lead to lower commodity prices and hurt Canadian exports, which could affect GDP and the dollar.
These external factors create a complex relationship between Britain’s economic performance and its currency, making the pound sterling sensitive to global economic shifts.
How to manage the risks associated with the release of UK Gross domestic product?
How many smart traders manage risk when GDP data is released monthly, especially with volatile currency pairs such as GBP/USD or GBP/JPY?
1. Reduce the size of the center
· Volatility can rise sharply, so many traders reduce the size of their position by half or even less.
· Smaller size = more room to move through sharp fluctuations.
2. Wait for the first reaction (do not chase)
· Avoid entering immediately when data is issued. Wait 5-15 minutes for the market to show its direction.
· many phantom exits occur in the first candlestick (especially at M1/M5 intervals).).
3. Use wider Stop Loss orders (but in moderation)
· Expect larger price movements. Some use technical stop orders directly below/above a structural level instead of tight stop losses that can become severe.
· Combine this with smaller position sizes to keep the risk ratio under control.
4. Avoid excessive leverage
· Even if you are confident in the trend, do not overinvest. The market does not always react “logically”.
5. Select the exit point before entering
· Find out what your target levels are and when you will exit if the deal goes against you.
Some even use bracket orders with predetermined both stop loss and take profit.
6. Stay steady if you’re unsure
· If volatility or spread is severe, many traders remain neutral. No deal is better than a forced one.
· Inflation targeting: The Bank of England’s mandates include keeping inflation close to its target (usually around 2%). If the Bank of England realizes that economic growth is slowing and inflation is under control, it may cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. This can encourage domestic demand and business investment, leading to GDP growth.
