Crude oil futures posted their first weekly gain in three weeks, driven by a new round of U.S. sanctions on Iran, tightening OPEC producers to control production, and improved U.S. export flows. In a short trading week due to the holidays, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $64.01 a barrel on Thursday, up $3.15, or 5.18%, for the week. Brent crude saw similar gains, with both benchmarks bouncing from multi-week lows on catalysts. Supply-side.
U.S. sanctions on Iran reignite supply risk premium
The most influential development this week was Washington’s decision to escalate sanctions targeting Iran’s crude oil exports. The measures, announced on Wednesday, included sanctions on a Chinese refinery and signaled the Trump administration’s renewed push to restrict Tehran’s energy revenues amid escalating nuclear tensions.
This hardline stance has exacerbated fears of tight global supply, especially in light of the recent recovery in Iran’s oil exports through informal channels. The market interpreted the sanctions as a signal that the United States may tighten the screws further on volumes flowing to China and other Asian buyers.
Tough comments from the U.S. Treasury Department reinforced the optimistic tone, as traders braced for the possibility of a decline in the availability of Iranian crude oil as summer approaches..
Oil prices fell sharply under Trump’s tariff campaign, but rebounded this week, albeit hesitantly. Brent and WTI ended their losing streak recording gains for the shorter-than-usual week before Easter, with Brent crude approaching $68 per barrel, while WTI crude reached just under $65 per barrel. In contrast, Brent crude fell last week to briefly below $60.
UAE markets rise with oil support, global trade optimism
Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates closed higher on Friday, driven by oil prices that rose on hopes of a trade deal between the United States and the European Union, while U.S. sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports add to supply concerns.
US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met in Washington and expressed optimism about resolving trade tensions that have strained relations between the US and Europe.
Oil prices – a catalyst for Gulf financial markets – rose 3% to $67.85 a barrel Dubai’s main market rose 0.7%, with most stocks rising.
Road toll operator Salik jumped 1.4%, while Emirates NBD, the region’s largest bank, boosted the index up 0.8%.
The Dubai market remains supported by solid fundamentals, and easing global trade tensions could further support its recovery trajectory, according to Tekmil’s Joseph Dahria.
Gulf markets close mixed amid tariff concerns
Dubai’s index rose 2.6% for the week, its biggest weekly advance so far this year, while Abu Dhabi posted a weekly gain of 1.3% after two weeks of losses, according to London Stock Exchange data. The market interpreted the sanctions as a signal that the United States may tighten the noose further on the amount flowing to China and other Asian buyers.
The benchmark Abu Dhabi index settled up 0.2%, ending a two-session losing streak, supported by a 2.3% rise in Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and a 1.5% rise in Aldar Properties.
ADNOC Drilling, a state-owned oil services company, rose 1.2% after receiving a five-year integrated drilling services contract worth US$1.63 billion from ADNOC Martime.
Energy and raw material prices fall (OIL) in March 2025
In March 2025, the price of oil in euros fell again significantly (-7.0% m/m after -5.4% in February). Gas prices fell sharply (-16.9% after +4.0%) but remained significantly higher year-on-year (+55.6%). Prices of imported raw materials in euros (excluding energy) fell over the course of one month (-4.4% after +2.0%), due significantly to the sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar; however, they rose by 9.9% year-on-year. Prices of industrial raw materials in euros shrank month-on-month (-2.7% after +3.5%) but increased by 10.0% over one year.
Among strategic raw materials, the price of cobalt rose (+38.9% after -9.1%), while the price of lithium continued to fall (-5.0% after -1.0%). Finally, euro food commodity prices fell sharply over a one-month period (-5.7% after +0.9%), but are still up 9.9% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in tropical commodity prices (+45.2%).
In March 2025, the price of North Sea crude oil (Brent) in dollar terms fell again (-3.5% after -4.9% in February), averaging $72.7 per barrel. The decline in euros was more pronounced (-7.0% after -5.4%), as a result of the sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar during that period. On an annual basis, the price of a barrel fell sharply in dollar (-14.8%) and euro (-14.3%).
The price of natural gas on the European market (TTF) fell sharply (-16.9% after +4.0%), averaging €41.8/MWh. However, it has remained significantly high over the course of a year (+55.6%). Finally, the price of uranium in euros continued to decline month-on-month (-8.3%, as in February); and fell significantly year-on-year (-27.4%), reaching its lowest level since August 2023.
