XAUUSD | Gold Technical Outlook
Market Overview
XAUUSD has entered a short-term corrective phase after failing to hold recent highs. Following the strong bullish leg that pushed price toward the 4350$-4360$ zone, sellers stepped in aggressively, triggering a sharp pullback on lower timeframes.
Despite this correction, the broader trend on H4 and Daily remains bullish, with price still trading above major medium-term moving averages. Current price action suggests a cooling phase rather than a full trend reversal, as the market digests recent gains.
Key Resistance Levels
Gold is now capped by a clear resistance zone:
4310$ – 4330$
This area aligns with:
- Prior intraday support turned resistance
- The descending short-term moving averages on H1
A sustained recovery above 4330$ would signal renewed bullish momentum, opening the way toward:
- 4360$
- 4400$ (major upside extension)
As long as price remains below this zone, upside attempts may face selling pressure.
Key Support Levels
Immediate support is located at:
4275$ – 4260$
This zone is critical, as it represents:
- The recent swing low
- A reaction area visible across M15 and H1
A confirmed break below 4260$ could expose deeper downside levels at:
- 4230$
- 4190$ (major H4 support)
Holding above 4260 keeps the broader bullish structure intact.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary Outlook)
- Price stabilizes above 4260$
- Buyers reclaim 4310$
- Momentum rebuilds toward 4360$, with potential continuation toward 4400$
This scenario favors a continuation of the dominant uptrend after consolidation.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
- A clean break down below 4260$
- Selling pressure accelerates toward 4230$ and possibly 4190$
This would represent a deeper corrective move, but not a full trend reversal unless daily structure breaks.
Overall Outlook
Gold is currently correcting after an extended rally, with short-term bearish pressure visible on lower timeframes. However, H4 and Daily trends remain bullish, suggesting the move is corrective rather than structural.
The market is now at a decision zone, where price action around 4260$-4310$ will define the next directional move. Traders should watch for either a stabilization and rebound from support or a confirmed breakdown for deeper retracement.
