XAUUSD Technical Outlook
Market Overview
XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish trend across higher timeframes, with price holding well above rising moving averages on the H4 and Daily charts. The broader structure continues to show higher highs and higher lows, confirming that the dominant trend is still upward.
In the short term, however, gold is entering a consolidation phase near recent highs, as buying momentum pauses following an extended impulsive move. This behavior suggests healthy digestion of gains rather than trend exhaustion, especially while key support zones remain intact.
The overall structure favors trend continuation, not a major reversal, unless critical support levels fail decisively.
Key Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance is located at:
$4495 – $4515
This zone represents:
- Recent intraday and H4 highs
- A short-term supply area after the latest bullish impulse
- Psychological resistance near round-number pricing
A confirmed H4 or daily close above $4515 would likely open the path toward:
- $4560
- $4620 (major higher-timeframe resistance)
Key Support Levels
Immediate support is found at:
$4460 – $4440
This area aligns with:
- Rising H1 and H4 moving averages
- Previous breakout structure
- Bullish pullback zone within the trend
If price breaks below $4440, downside risk increases toward:
- $4390
- $4325
A break below these levels would suggest a deeper corrective phase, though not necessarily a full trend reversal.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Preferred While Above Support)
As long as gold holds above $4440, the bullish structure remains valid.
In this scenario:
- Pullbacks are likely to attract buyers
- Price may resume higher toward $4515, then $4560
Continuation setups remain favored during shallow corrections.
Bearish Scenario (Only If Structure Breaks)
A sustained break and acceptance below 4440 would signal weakening bullish control.
This could trigger a corrective move toward:
- $4390
- $4325
This scenario requires clear breakdown and follow-through, not just intraday volatility.
Overall Outlook
Gold remains technically bullish across multiple timeframes, supported by strong structure and rising trend support. While short-term consolidation is developing near resistance, the broader bias favors continuation higher unless key support levels fail.
Price action around $4440 support and $4515 resistances will be critical in defining the next directional move.
