XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD is undergoing a short-term corrective phase after failing to sustain its recent upside extension. Following a strong bullish run on the higher timeframes, price has shifted into a controlled pullback, with sellers gradually pressing the market lower.
This move is occurring in a thin holiday trading environment, where reduced participation around the Christmas period is limiting follow-through on both sides. As a result, price action appears more technical and less impulsive, with moves unfolding in a measured, step-by-step manner rather than sharp breakouts.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is located at:
$4,485 – $4,505
This zone represents:
- A prior intraday consolidation area
- Short-term moving average resistance
- The breakdown points from the latest pullback leg
Additional resistance levels above include:
- $4,530
- $4,560 (major short-term cap)
As long as gold remains below $4,505, upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is found at:
$4,450 – $4,435
This area aligns with:
- Recent intraday lows
- A minor structural support formed during the pullback
A clean break below $4,435 would expose lower levels toward:
- $4,400
- $4,360 (broader structural support)
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Bias)
With holiday conditions keeping volatility compressed, downside continuation remains favored while price trades below $4,505. A break under $4,435 could extend the pullback toward $4,400, though moves are expected to remain gradual rather than aggressive due to seasonal liquidity constraints.
Bullish Scenario (Stabilization Attempt)
A recovery back above $4,505 would signal short-term stabilization and open the door for a rebound toward:
- $4,530
- $4,560
However, upside momentum is likely to remain capped until normal market participation resumes after the holiday period.
Outlook
Gold is in a controlled corrective phase within a broader bullish structure. The current pullback is unfolding under Christmas holiday trading conditions, which are limiting momentum and keeping price action orderly. Unless key resistance levels are reclaimed, the market may continue to drift lower or consolidate near support before a clearer directional move emerges once liquidity returns.
