EURUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
EURUSD remains in a broader corrective/downward structure on the higher timeframes, with price still trading below the key moving-average cluster on H4 and Daily, keeping rallies vulnerable to selling pressure. That said, the lower timeframes (M15/H1) are showing a short-term stabilization and bounce, with price attempting to recover from the most recent intraday lows and reclaim near-term levels. Overall, the market is in a tactical rebound within a bearish-to-neutral higher-timeframe context, meaning upside attempts need confirmation through a clean reclaim of nearby resistance zones to shift bias.
Key Resistance Zone
Upside progress is capped by layered supply above current price:
- 1.1650 – 1.1660 (near-term ceiling / intraday rejection area)
- 1.1670 – 1.1685 (H1 supply zone and prior breakdown area)
- 1.1700 – 1.1720 (H4 structure resistance / pullback cap)
A sustained break and hold above 1.1685 would improve the probability of a deeper recovery toward 1.1700–1.1720.
Key Support Zone
EURUSD is currently leaning on a key demand shelf:
- 1.1630 – 1.1620 (immediate support band / recent swing low base)
- 1.1600 – 1.1585 (major downside objective if support fails)
A decisive break down below 1.1620 would likely re-open bearish continuation toward 1.1600 and potentially 1.1585.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Alternative / Recovery Attempt)
If EURUSD holds above 1.1630–1.1620, buyers may continue to build a base on the lower timeframes. A clean push above 1.1650–1.1660 could extend the rebound toward 1.1670–1.1685, with 1.1700–1.1720 acting as the next major test. This scenario remains corrective unless higher-timeframe structure is reclaimed.
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
Failure to defend 1.1630–1.1620 would confirm the current rebound as a short-lived pullback. A break below 1.1620 would likely trigger continuation selling into 1.1600, and a deeper extension could target 1.1585. As long as price remains capped beneath 1.1670–1.1685, downside risk remains dominant.
Outlook
EURUSD remains bearish-to-neutral on higher timeframes, while lower timeframes are attempting a short-term recovery. The market is at an inflection zone: holding above 1.1620–1.1630 supports a rebound narrative, but any confirmed breakdown below that base would likely accelerate downside continuation. The bias stays cautious until price reclaims 1.1670–1.1685 with acceptance
