EURUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
EURUSD remains under sustained bearish pressure across higher timeframes, with the daily and H4 structures still reflecting a broader downtrend marked by lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action shows a corrective rebound from the 1.1600 handle, but this recovery appears corrective rather than impulsive. On the intraday timeframes (H1 and M15), price is consolidating after a sharp selloff, indicating short-term stabilization but not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Moving averages remain bearishly aligned on higher timeframes, reinforcing the dominant downside bias.
Key Resistance Zone
Upside attempts are capped by a clear supply cluster:
- 1.1650 – 1.1670 (intraday resistance and prior breakdown area)
- 1.1700 – 1.1720 (H4 structure resistance and trend-defining zone)
A sustained reclaim above 1.1700 would be required to neutralize the broader bearish structure.
Key Support Zone
Downside support remains well-defined below current price:
- 1.1600 – 1.1610 (recent swing low and psychological support)
- 1.1550 – 1.1570 (daily demand zone and prior reaction base)
A clean break below 1.1600 would likely expose the lower daily support zone.
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
As long as EURUSD remains below 1.1650–1.1700, rallies are likely to be sold into. Failure to hold above 1.1600 would open the door for continuation toward 1.1550 and potentially lower levels in line with the dominant daily trend.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
A sustained break and hold above 1.1700 would signal a deeper corrective phase, with scope for a move toward higher H4 resistance zones. This scenario would still be considered corrective unless accompanied by a clear daily structure shift.
Outlook
EURUSD remains technically bearish on a higher-timeframe basis. While short-term consolidation may persist following the recent selloff, the broader bias stays tilted to the downside unless price can reclaim and hold above key resistance levels. Sellers remain structurally favored while below 1.1700.
