US30 | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
US30 has shifted into a corrective bearish phase after failing to hold recent highs near the $49,500–$49,600 region. The selloff accelerated into a sharp impulsive drop, pushing price down into the major demand shelf around $48,900–$49,000, where the market is currently attempting to stabilize. While the broader daily trend remains structurally bullish, the lower timeframes (H1/M15) still reflect weak momentum and heavy supply overhead, keeping rebounds vulnerable unless buyers reclaim broken levels.
Key Resistance Zone
Upside progress is capped by a layered supply structure:
- $49,000 – $49,120 (immediate reaction ceiling and first rejection risk)
- $49,350 – $49,550 (breakdown zone + overhead moving-average resistance)
Additional resistance levels:
• $49,800 – $50,000 (major supply / prior swing ceiling)
A sustained break and hold back above $49,550 would be the clearest signal that the correction is fading.
Key Support Zone
Price is now leaning on a key support base:
- $48,850 – $48,920 (current stabilization floor and near-term demand)
- $48,750 – $48,800 (next downside pocket if sellers regain control)
A decisive break below $48,750 would expose deeper supports:
• $48,500 – $48,600 (structural demand on the higher timeframe)
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
As long as US30 remains below $49,120–$49,350, rebounds are likely to be corrective. A failure to hold $48,850–$48,920 would increase the probability of continuation toward $48,800 and potentially $48,500–$48,600.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
If buyers defend $48,850–$48,920 and push through $49,120, the market can attempt a recovery toward $49,350–$49,550. A breakout and hold above $49,550 would strengthen bullish continuation prospects and reduce near-term downside risk.
Outlook
US30 is at a make-or-break demand zone after a sharp corrective drop. The broader daily structure still leans constructive, but momentum on the lower timeframes remains fragile. Holding above $48,850–$48,920 keeps a recovery attempt alive, while a clean break down below that floor would likely extend the correction into lower support pockets.
