XAUUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD is trading at fresh record highs near $4,734, firmly reinforcing its dominant bullish trend across all higher timeframes. The Daily and H4 structures remain decisively upward, with price consistently printing higher highs and higher lows while holding above rising moving averages, clear evidence of strong trend control by buyers. On the lower timeframes (H1 and M15), the explosive breakout has transitioned into a tight consolidation just below the highs, signaling healthy absorption of supply rather than exhaustion. While the broader bias remains bullish, trading at record levels naturally increases the risk of sharp, volatility-driven pullbacks if upside momentum briefly stalls.
Key Resistance Zone
The immediate ceiling is the record-high supply zone around $4,733 – $4,745 (current ATH region). A clean break and hold above this band would signal continuation momentum.
Additional resistance levels:
- $4,760 – $4,780 (next extension zone)
- $4,800 (major psychological barrier)
Key Support Zone
The nearest support is the breakout-hold area and consolidation base around $4,700 – $4,715. This zone is critical for keeping momentum intact on H1/M15.
Below that, the next support sits at $4,665 – $4,685, a prior structure shelf that aligns with the post-breakout stabilization area.
Additional support levels:
- $4,640 – $4,655
- $4,600 – $4,620 (deeper trend support if selling accelerates)
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
As long as price holds above $4,700 – $4,715, the path of least resistance remains higher. A breakout above $4,733 – $4,745 opens the door toward $4,760 – $4,780, with a potential extension into $4,800 if momentum remains aggressive.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
If price rejects the ATH zone and breaks below $4,700, expect a deeper pullback toward $4,665 – $4,685. A failure to hold that level would shift short-term control to sellers and expose $4,640 – $4,655, with $4,600 – $4,620 as a more meaningful downside magnet.
Outlook
Gold remains structurally bullish and is behaving like a strong trend market, breaking into record territory and consolidating near the highs. Bulls stay in control while price holds above $4,700, but because this is an ATH environment, volatility can increase quickly. A sustained push above $4,745 favors continuation, while a breakdown below $4,700 would likely trigger a broader correction into the next support bands.
