XAUUSD |Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish structure on the higher timeframes, but the latest push to fresh highs has triggered a short-term corrective phase. Price is currently consolidating around $4,820, after rejecting from the recent peak zone near $4,844.
This keeps the bigger trend constructive (D1/H4), while M15–H1 reflects cooling momentum and a market deciding whether this pullback becomes a deeper retracement or simply a base for continuation.
Key Resistance Zone
$4,835 – $4,845 is the immediate supply zone, defined by the recent peak/rejection area and the upper breakout ceiling. A clean break and hold above this band would signal trend continuation into new highs.
Additional resistance levels:
- $4,865 – $4,885 (extension zone if $4,845 breaks)
- $4,900 (psychological round-number magnet)
Key Support Zone
Immediate demand sits at $4,810 – $4,800, where price is attempting to stabilize after the pullback. This zone is critical for keeping the current move as a “healthy correction” within the uptrend.
If $4,800 fails, the retracement opens toward deeper supports:
- $4,780 – $4,770 (next intraday structure base)
- $4,725 – $4,705 (major higher-timeframe support shelf)
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
As long as gold holds above $4,800, the bias remains for a re-accumulation phase and another attempt toward:
- $4,835 – $4,845
- Then $4,865 – $4,885 if buyers reclaim momentum and push through the highs.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
If price breaks and sustains below $4,800, the pullback likely deepens toward:
- $4,780 – $4,770
- Then $4,725 – $4,705 if selling pressure accelerates and the market unwinds the latest impulse leg.
Outlook
Gold is still structurally bullish on H4/D1, but near-term price action shows post-breakout fatigue after printing fresh highs. The key decision level is $4,800: holding it supports continuation back into $4,845+, while a clean breakdown risks a wider retracement toward $4,770 and potentially $4,725 before buyers can reassert control.
