XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish market structure on the higher timeframes, with price continuing to print higher highs and higher lows on the Daily and H4 charts. However, after reaching recent highs near the $4,960 – $5,000 area, price entered a short-term corrective phase.
On the H1 and M15 timeframes, the impulsive upside move has paused, and price is currently consolidating after a pullback. This correction appears technical in nature, occurring above key trend-support averages rather than signaling a trend reversal.
The broader structure remains constructive as long as price holds above the most recent higher low.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is defined by the recent swing highs and supply zone:
- $4,950 – $4,980 (short-term resistance)
- $5,000 – $5,030 (major psychological and structural resistance)
A sustained break and hold above $5,000 would likely trigger another impulsive bullish leg.
Key Support Zone
Primary support during this corrective phase sits at:
- $4,900 – $4,915 (intraday support / pullback base)
- $4,860 – $4,880 (key H1–H4 demand zone)
As long as price holds above $4,860, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A deeper pullback below this zone would suggest a more extended consolidation, but not necessarily a trend reversal.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
If price stabilizes above $4,900 and reclaims momentum:
- Upside targets open toward $4,980
- Followed by a potential test of $5,000 – $5,030
Continuation above $5,000 would confirm trend resumption.
Corrective / Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
If selling pressure resumes below $4,900:
- Price may extend the pullback toward $4,880
- A deeper correction could test $4,860
Only a sustained break below $4,860 would weaken the bullish structure and delay continuation.
Outlook
Gold is not reversing, but rather undergoing a healthy corrective pause within a dominant uptrend. The higher-timeframe bias remains bullish, with current price action best described as consolidation following an extended rally.
As long as price remains above $4,860, the outlook favors trend continuation, with buyers likely to re-engage once the correction matures.
