EURUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
EURUSD remains under sustained bearish pressure, with the broader structure tilted to the downside despite a sharp recovery attempt earlier in the week. After topping near the 1.2000–1.2050 area on the daily timeframe, the pair reversed aggressively, breaking back below key short- and medium-term moving averages.
On the daily and H4 charts, the recovery leg has clearly transitioned into a corrective pullback, with price now trading below the prior bullish impulse zone. The H1 and M15 timeframes confirm weakening momentum, showing a sequence of lower highs and repeated failures to sustain rebounds above intraday resistance.
Overall, the structure favors sellers as long as EURUSD remains capped below the 1.1800–1.1850 zone.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is located at 1.1790 – 1.1820, which aligns with:
- Former intraday support turned resistance
- Confluence of declining short-term moving averages
- Repeated rejection on M15 and H1 charts
Additional resistance levels:
- 1.1860 – 1.1880 (H4 corrective ceiling)
- 1.1950 – 1.2000 (major daily rejection zone)
As long as price trades below 1.1820, upside attempts are likely to remain corrective in nature.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is holding near 1.1760 – 1.1780, where selling pressure has temporarily slowed.
A decisive break below this zone would expose deeper downside targets:
- 1.1700 – 1.1720 (daily structure support)
- 1.1650 (major medium-term support)
Failure to defend 1.1700 would confirm a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
The prevailing structure favors further downside as long as EURUSD remains below 1.1820.
A break below 1.1760 would likely trigger renewed selling pressure toward 1.1700, with scope for extension toward 1.1650.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
A sustained recovery above 1.1820 would be the first signal of short-term stabilization, opening the door toward:
- 1.1860 – 1.1880
- 1.1950 (key level required to neutralize bearish pressure)
Without a reclaim of these levels, any bounce is likely to remain corrective.
Outlook
EURUSD remains structurally bearish, with sellers maintaining control across multiple timeframes. While short-term consolidation may persist above 1.1760, the broader bias stays negative below 1.1820. A breakdown beneath key support could accelerate the decline toward deeper daily demand zones, keeping downside risks firmly in focus.
