XAUUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD remains in a broader bullish trend, but price action has shifted into a consolidation phase after the sharp late-January impulse and subsequent corrective pullback. The rebound from the post-selloff lows has rebuilt upside structure, and price is now stabilizing around the $5,050 handle, holding above the rising short-term averages on intraday timeframes.
Near-term, momentum is constructive but capped by a repeated supply band above current price, keeping XAUUSD in a “grind higher / pause” environment rather than a clean breakout.
Key Resistance Zone
The nearest resistance sits at $5,070 – $5,090, where multiple intraday attempts have stalled and supply repeatedly re-enters. A clean break and hold above this band would confirm renewed upside continuation.
Additional resistance levels:
• $5,120 – $5,150 (next extension zone if momentum expands)
• $5,200 (major psychological/structure objective)
As long as XAUUSD trades below $5,090, upside progress is likely to be gradual and vulnerable to pullbacks.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is located at $5,030 – $5,040, the base of the current consolidation and a key intraday demand pocket. This zone is critical for maintaining the short-term bullish bias.
A breakdown below $5,030 would expose lower supports:
- $5,000 – $5,010 (major psychological + structure support)
- $4,950 – $4,975 (deeper corrective support from the prior rebound)
A failure to hold $5,000 would shift the structure into a broader corrective leg.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
The bias remains constructive while price holds above $5,030 – $5,040. A sustained push through $5,070 – $5,090 would likely open continuation toward $5,120 – $5,150, with scope to extend toward $5,200 if momentum accelerates.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
If price loses $5,030, expect a pullback toward $5,000 – $5,010. A confirmed breakdown below $5,000 would increase downside pressure and expose $4,950 – $4,975, marking a deeper correction within the larger bullish trend.
Outlook
Gold is consolidating bullishly above the $5,030 – $5,050 support base, with buyers maintaining control despite repeated rejection from $5,070 – $5,090. A breakout above resistance would validate continuation, while a failure below $5,030 shifts focus to $5,000 as the key line in the sand for trend stability.
