EURUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
EURUSD is currently stabilizing after a recent recovery move, with price consolidating around the 1.1530–1.1540 region across lower and mid timeframes as market participants remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
On the broader structure, the pair remains within a bearish trend, following the sustained decline from the 1.20+ region visible on the Daily chart. The downtrend established a clear sequence of lower highs on the H4 timeframe. However, the recent rebound from the 1.1400–1.1450 zone has shifted short-term momentum, with price forming higher lows and attempting to build a recovery structure.
Price is now testing a key resistance zone, but the structure has not yet transitioned into a confirmed bullish reversal, with sellers still active below higher timeframe resistance.
Key Resistance Zone
The nearest resistance is located at 1.1540 – 1.1560, where price is currently consolidating and showing signs of hesitation.
Additional resistance levels:
- 1.1600 – 1.1620 (H4 structure and supply zone)
- 1.1680+ (major resistance and trend reversal level)
As long as price remains below 1.1560, upside remains limited within a corrective structure.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is seen at 1.1500 – 1.1515, acting as a short-term demand zone.
A breakdown below this level would expose further downside targets:
- 1.1470
- 1.1400 – 1.1450 (major support and recent swing low)
A sustained move below 1.1400 would confirm continuation of the broader downtrend.
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
Failure to break above 1.1560 would likely lead to renewed selling pressure.
A move below 1.1500 could trigger a decline toward 1.1470, with potential extension toward 1.1400.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
A sustained breakout above 1.1560 would signal strengthening bullish momentum, opening the door for a move toward:
- 1.1600 – 1.1620
- 1.1680+ if momentum accelerates
However, a full bullish reversal requires a break of the higher timeframe lower high structure.
Outlook
EURUSD is trading in a corrective recovery phase within a broader bearish trend, with price compressing below resistance ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The upcoming event is likely to act as a catalyst for a breakout, with a move above 1.1560 or below 1.1500 defining the next directional bias.
