The forecasts of international banks and global financial institutions are an important reference for investors and traders in the gold market. In 2024, the expectations of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund about gold prices aroused the interest of many, as these expectations varied significantly.
World Bank Forecast: According to the latest report issued by the World Bank, analysts expect the price of gold to average $1,950 per ounce in 2024. This prediction is attributed to several factors, including the expected deterioration in the global economy and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The report also indicates that safe haven demand, of which gold is a part, may remain strong in light of the increasing complexity of global economic and political conditions.
International Monetary Fund forecasts: On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund issued its forecasts for gold prices in 2024, with analysts expecting the average price of gold to reach $1,775 per ounce. These expectations are due to the IMF’s expectations of a limited economic recovery and reduced demand for safe havens in light of improving global economic conditions.
Potential impact on markets: Diverging expectations could polarize financial markets, as investors and traders eagerly await upcoming developments. These competing expectations may impact gold prices and present both opportunities and challenges for traders.
Forecasts by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund clearly show the challenges and opportunities facing the gold market in 2024. While the expectation of higher gold prices is an indicator of continuing economic and political uncertainties and tensions, others argue that lower prices could reflect a gradual improvement in the global economy. Ultimately, investors should monitor upcoming developments and make informed decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of economic and political factors.
Long term XAUUSD trading plan
The price of gold is expected to move in an upward direction during the year 2024. Based on technical analysis, this asset has all the necessary ingredients for its continued positive development.
Furthermore, our analysis has identified the most liquid buy and sell zones that can be used in a trading strategy.
Trading plan for the next three months
Based on technical analysis, our plan for next three months could be as follows:
• Main support levels for the asset: 2087.96, 2056.98, 2009.83, 1973.46, 1935.07, 1918.66
• Main resistance levels: 2137.16, 2158.13, 2195.66, 2237.34, 2297.26
• Technical indicators on the H4 and D1 time frames indicate an upcoming downward correction to the 2087.96 level after updating the highest price that gold has reached in its history. However overall sentiment remains positive, with the price targeting around 2297.26.
Trading plan for 2024
• Main support levels: 2056.98, 1973.46, 1918.66, 1810.60, 1617.86
• Main resistance levels: 2158.13, 2237.34, 2297.26, 2486.31
• The uptrend is expected to develop further, with the potential price reaching 2486.31 by the end of this year.
• An alternative scenario may occur if sellers break the downtrend line and settle below $2,056.98. In this case, negative momentum may get stronger, and gold may head towards the 1973.46-1810.60 levels.
Factors that affect the price of gold: Traders usually associate fundamental analysis with the stock market, not gold. While fundamental analysts monitor the financial statements of specific companies, gold market analysts monitor macroeconomic factors,
global political and economic stability, and competition from investment alternatives so that they can forecast prices. Let’s take a look at five macroeconomic parameters that can affect the cost of key precious metal. Inflation Inflation affects price of gold, but not as much as one might think. Most novice gold investors believe that if the price of gold in the United States rises
The risk of a recession due to geopolitical tensions
Military conflicts are the second most important source of economic uncertainty – after financial market crises – that worries investors. Gold’s role is clearly highlighted as a safe haven for investors to turn to in times of turmoil, and regional conflicts may fuel these concerns in the market. These conflicts are also linked to several other factors that stimulate high gold prices, such as excessive spending, money supply, political instability, and currency depreciation.
Interest rates: Gold prices are significantly affected by interest rates, because it does not generate a periodic return. Therefore, it is very sensitive to alternative assets in the stock market that offer a potential return, such as bonds or even dividend-paying stocks. There is a notable, though not perfect, inverse correlation between them. When US government bond yields rise, the gold price is more likely to move sideways or even downward, while lower yields tend to lead to very positive movements in gold prices.
For example, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to very low levels to combat the recession in the early 2000s, and this provided good support to gold prices that were already rising. On January 26, 2022, the US Federal Reserve indicated its intentions to raise interest rates, which led to a sharp decline in the price of gold from $1,847.61 to $1,791.03 during the period from January 26 to 28.
Supply and demand: Gold prices are significantly affected by interest rates, because it does not generate a periodic return. Therefore, it is very sensitive to alternative assets in the stock market that offer a potential return, such as bonds or even dividend-paying stocks. There is a notable, though not perfect, inverse correlation between them. When US government bond yields rise
