Economic data in Australia is diverse and mixed. This diversity makes things complicated, as we find ourselves eagerly analyzing various data points to draw conflicting conclusions. However, this diversity can be a positive point, as it means that the RBA finds itself in a very similar situation to us. If there is no clear trend in broad-based data, it makes the path of economic policy less clear. This means that RBA decision makers may be less likely to change policy if there are too many conditions and variables.
This complex data analysis can be the result of multiple reasons, such as the impact of global factors on the Australian economy and changes in the global market. It may also be a result of changes in local government policies and their impact on investment and spending in the country. In general, we must realize that analyzing economic data is not an easy task, and we may have contradictory insights as a result of the diversity of data. However, we can exploit this diversity to improve our understanding of the economic situation and make more informed and detailed decisions. If there is no clear trend in the data on a large scale, it makes the path of economic policy less clear. This means that RBA decision makers may be less likely to change policy if there are too many conditions and variables.
However, the return of rising inflation coupled with strong employment numbers means there is a slight bias in the RBA’s tone. This bias is likely to remain after today’s employment numbers. Yes, the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 4.1%. But then all the other important metrics rose in this month’s employment report, including job growth for full- and part-time workers, the participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio.
AUDUSD AU2 2-Year Yield
The net reaction of Australian markets saw yields rise and the Australian dollar move off its session lows against various currencies, but the ASX 200 index retreated from its highs of the day.
AUD/USD, 2-Year AU2 Yield: Yields were perhaps the purest response to the jobs data, as it suggests the RBA is more likely to raise interest rates. It so happened that the AUD/USD pair was exploring the May high for the second time this week before yields pulled it higher. Assuming today’s low remains unchallenged by the New York close, the AUD/USD pair will close today at a double bottom at the May high – which in turn suggests further gains, at least in the near term. But for those looking for value, AUD/JPY may be the better choice.
Technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair: Current decline: The AUDJPY currency pair fell by 4.4% from the highest level in July to the lowest level today. This indicates strong selling pressure on the pair.
Open and break: The daily chart shows that prices opened above the April high but broke below it in subsequent days. This breakout indicates a change in the previous uptrend.
Lower Wick: A daily lower wick, which is part of a Japanese candlestick, has been observed and indicates a false breakdown in price. This could be a signal of a possible trend reversal and potential upside.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The daily RSI (2) is pointing higher after closing in the oversold territory on Wednesday. This indicates increasing upward momentum and could be a positive indicator for the pair.
Trading Volume: Trading volumes were relatively low near the cycle lows. We saw two very negative delta candles in volume, indicating that the bears are getting greedy on their way down.
Potential support levels or resistance areas for AUDJPY based on technical analysis?
Recent Low: The most immediate support level can be identified at the recent low reached by the pair. This level represents a price point that buyers have previously shown interest in and may intervene again to support the price. Further chart analysis is needed to identify this specific level.
Main support: resistance to the recent rise Recent rise: The recent rise reached by the pair can act as a resistance area. This level represents a price point that sellers have previously shown interest in and may push the price lower again. Additional analysis is required to determine this specific level. Fibonacci and trend line
How do the current support and resistance levels of AUD/JPY compare with historical price action? To compare the current support and resistance levels of the AUD/JPY pair with historical price action, you will need access to a live price chart and historical data.
Get a price chart: Use a reliable financial platform or trading software that provides historical price data for the AUD/JPY pair. This platform should allow you to view different time frames, such as daily, weekly, or monthly.
Identify Historical Support Levels: Analyze the chart and identify important price levels where the AUD/JPY currency pair has found support in the past. Look for areas where the price has reversed its downward trend or where it has stabilized for an extended period.
Identify historical resistance areas: Similarly, identify historical price levels where the AUD/JPY pair has encountered resistance. These are areas where the price has reversed its upward trend or faced selling pressure.
Comparison to current levels: Compare the current support and resistance levels you have identified with the historical levels you have found. Evaluate whether current levels match or differ from historical patterns.
