BTCUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
BTCUSD continues to trade within a constructive recovery structure after rebounding strongly from the November–December lows. On the higher timeframes, BTCUSD has shifted from a prolonged corrective phase into a clear higher-low sequence, supported by rising moving averages and improving momentum. The recent impulsive advance pushed price back toward the $96,800–$97,000 area, where short-term consolidation has emerged. This behavior suggests profit-taking rather than structural weakness, keeping the broader bullish recovery intact for now.
Key Resistance Zone
Upside progress is currently capped by the following supply areas:
- $97,000 – $97,800: Recent swing high zone and short-term rejection area
- $99,000 – $100,000: Major psychological resistance and prior distribution region
A sustained break and hold above $97,800 would reinforce bullish continuation toward the $99K handle.
Key Support Zone
Bitcoin is underpinned by layered demand below current price:
- $95,500 – $95,800: Near-term intraday support and consolidation base
- $93,800 – $94,200: Prior breakout zone and key structural support
A decisive break below $93,800 would signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader recovery.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
As long as BTCUSD holds above $95,500, buyers are likely to remain in control. Consolidation above this level may serve as a base for another upside attempt, with a confirmed breakout above $97,800 opening the door toward $99,000 and potentially the $100,000 psychological level.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
Failure to defend $95,500, followed by a break below $93,800, would expose Bitcoin to a deeper pullback toward lower demand zones. This scenario would be viewed as corrective unless the daily structure decisively turns lower.
Outlook
Bitcoin maintains a bullish recovery bias on higher timeframes, supported by improving structure and sustained demand on pullbacks. While near-term consolidation may persist below resistance, the overall outlook remains constructive as long as price holds above key support levels. A confirmed breakout above $97,800 would likely mark the next expansion phase in BTCUSD’s upside trajectory.
