BTCUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
BTCUSD is still under downward pressure on the higher timeframes, with the daily chart showing price trading below key moving averages, confirming a broader bearish trend. While the sharp selloff has paused on the 4H chart, the recovery attempt has been weak and range-bound, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest. On the lower timeframes, price is forming lower highs, indicating that sellers remain in control and that recent bounces are corrective rather than trend changing.
Key Resistance Zone
- $69,200 – $69,700: First supply band and the nearest area where rebounds have recently stalled.
- $70,100 – $71,000: Larger resistance zone aligned with prior intraday distribution and the descending MA structure (likely to attract sellers on retests).
Key Support Zone
- $68,300 – $68,600: Immediate demand pocket; a break below risks accelerating liquidation into the next base.
- $66,800 – $67,300: Meanwhile, secondary support aligns with the broader consolidation floor after the sharp selloff, marking a key ‘must-hold’ zone to avoid renewed trend continuation to the downside.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario:
For now, holding $68,300–$68,600 and reclaiming $69,200–$69,700 on a sustained basis would improve the intraday structure, thereby opening scope for a grind higher into the $70,100–$71,000 range. However, bulls need follow-through, with clean closes above resistance, to confirm that the move represents more than a relief bounce.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure to regain $69,200–$69,700, followed by a clean break below $68,300, would reinforce the dominant downtrend and likely trigger continuation into $66,800–$67,300. A deeper breakdown would keep rallies corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Outlook
Bias remains cautiously bearish, with BTCUSD trading in a range-bound pause inside a broader downtrend. At this inflection area, support must hold to keep any recovery attempt alive; meanwhile, upside progress requires a decisive reclaim of $69.2k–$69.7k to shift momentum back toward buyers.
