According to the latest data, the inflation rate in Germany is expected to be +2.3% in July 2024 compared to the same month of the previous year. This increase is measured based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.3% in June 2024. When sensitive sectors such as food and energy are excluded, known as core inflation, it is expected to be +2.9%. These forecasts reflect the current state of the economy and markets, reflecting the impact of various factors on the prices of goods and services.
According to the data, the inflation rate in Germany is expected to be +2.3% in July 2024 compared to the same month of the previous year. This trend is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition, selling prices are expected to increase by 0.3% in June 2024. These are limited in nature, such as food, known as the highest inflation, and are expected to be +2.9%. These considerations relate to the current state of the economy and markets, which influence various factors on the prices of goods and commodities.
The development of consumer prices, especially with regard to energy prices (household energy and fuel), has caused significant financial pressure on private households in 2022 in particular, but has also posed and continues to pose a challenge for many people in subsequent years. Therefore, since the spring of 2022, the German Federal Government has adopted three comprehensive relief packages to support consumers. Some of the measures directly affect consumer prices and have an impact on their overall development.
+2.3% year-on-year (provisional)
+0.3% month-on-month (provisional)
Harmonized Consumer Price Index, July 2024:
+2.6% year-on-year (provisional)
+0.5% month-on-month (provisional) The final results for July 2024 will be announced on August 9, 2024.
Quality Report – Consumer Price Index in Germany
The rate of price increases does not depend only on how prices change. The weights with which the price trends of individual goods and services are reflected in the CPI are also important. The Price Kaleidoscope shows you the price trends and weights of the different product groups in the CPI.
The impact of the Corona crisis on the CPI/Harmonized Consumer Price Index: Despite the challenges posed by the current Corona crisis, price statistics reliably provide the national CPI and the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) as important economic indicators.
Quality Report – German Consumer Price Index: With regard to the CPI, the price index series for household final consumption expenditure in Germany is provided in the form of aggregates and individual aggregates. Inflation rates are available on an annual and monthly basis. Furthermore, the weights of the individual sub-indices in the overall index are also published. On this basis, users can calculate inflation rates for any period and product groups.
Quality Report – Harmonized Consumer Price Index: Excerpt from the Quality Report – Harmonized Consumer Price Index
Recorded consumer prices are used to calculate the Harmonized Consumer Price Index, which in turn is used to calculate the inflation benchmark for measuring price stability in the euro area economy. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is used as a basis for international comparisons of inflation rates. It is compiled to produce the CPI for the European Monetary Union, the European Union and the European Economic Area. The HICP is one of the convergence criteria on which the decision on whether a Member State should be included in the euro area is based.
Quality report: Retail price index: The retail prices recorded are used to calculate the retail price indices including and excluding VAT.
Scanner data in consumer price statistics and identification of regional price differences
Digital point-of-sale (POS) data from the retail sector, also referred to as scanner data, is a promising source of data for price statistics. In official consumer price statistics, manual price collection by price collectors directly in stores or service establishments is supplemented, or partially replaced, by new forms of price collection.
Scanner data: Scanner data is digital transaction data recorded at checkout counters in retail stores that provides information on sales volumes and types of goods sold. Scanner data has the potential to digitize different sets of statistics and ensure and improve data quality. Scanner data can be used in consumer price statistics or to identify regional price differences, for example.
Scanner data in consumer price statistics: Digital point-of-sale (POS) data from the retail sector, also referred to as scanner data, is a promising source of data for price statistics. In official consumer price statistics, manual price collection by price collectors in stores or service establishments is supplemented, or partially replaced, by new forms of price collection. These include in particular automated online price collection (web scraping) and the use of scanner data. In contrast to web scraping, scanner data is not yet used in official German consumer price statistics.
The information on individual transactions does not relate to price statistics, but to aggregate sales data for individual goods sold by large retail chains or high-turnover stores. Overall, scanner data has the potential to ensure the accuracy and quality of consumer price measurement in Germany for selected product groups in view of dynamic pricing and to gradually replace traditional price collection in stores while reducing the associated costs and effort in the long term.
