Gold Price Today: Rebound After a Violent Year-End Shakeout
Gold is back on traders’ radar today after a sharp reversal from Monday’s heavy selling. Spot gold rose about 1% to $4,374.76 per ounce on December 30, after sliding hard in the prior session (Monday’s drop as the biggest in more than two months) following a record peak near $4,549.71. In futures, U.S. gold futures gained about 1.1% to $4,391.30. The takeaway for traders isn’t just the bounce, it’s what it says about positioning: year-end liquidity is thin, and when leverage meets shallow order books, price can overshoot both directions quickly amid anticipation of today’s Fed meeting.
That’s why Monday’s drop looked like “profit-taking + repositioning,” rather than a clean trend break. The underlying drivers that supported gold for most of 2025, a softer dollar backdrop, macro uncertainty, and continued hedging demand, are still in play, which helps explain why dip-buying showed up quickly once price stabilized.
From a tactical angle, this environment tends to reward traders who treat rallies and selloffs as liquidity events: watch how price behaves around prior breakout zones, and respect that intraday volatility can be exaggerated into the year-end close. If gold holds above its post-selloff base while the dollar remains capped, the path of least resistance can tilt back toward consolidation-to-upside, but it will likely come with sharp swings rather than smooth trend days.
Dollar Price and Trend Today: DXY Hovers Near 98 as FX Waits for Fed Clarity
On the currency side, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around ~98 in subdued conditions as markets run into holiday-thinned liquidity, and the broader narrative remains that 2025 has been a weak year for the greenback. Reuters reporting dated Dec 30 noted the dollar has been steady heading into the Fed’s next key communication, while still on course for a steep annual drop (roughly 9.6% for 2025).
In the same flow, EUR/USD was around $1.177 and GBP/USD near $1.351, underscoring how much policy expectations have shifted against the dollar into year-end. For traders, the “price” of the dollar today is less about one number and more about rate-path sensitivity: when markets lean toward future easing, the dollar typically struggles to sustain rallies; when yields jump or risk-off hits, it can catch a bid fast.
The important nuance today is that FX is calm not because there’s no catalyst, but because many participants are waiting for the next Fed signal to define early-2026 positioning. This matters for gold directly: a stable-to-soft dollar reduces the headwind for bullion, especially when real yields aren’t surging. In short, today’s tape looks like a classic “range day with event risk”: low conviction intraday, but vulnerable to outsized moves if the next Fed messaging surprises.
“Fed Speech” vs. Today’s Fed Catalyst: What Markets Are Actually Watching
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to release the minutes of its December 9-10 policy meeting on Tuesday, providing fresh insight into disagreements among policymakers over the decision to reduce short-term rates for the third consecutive time and the plan to hold rates near current levels in 2026.
The Fed cut the policy rate by a quarter point, bringing it to 3.50%-3.75%. Three officials dissented: two Fed bank presidents opposed any cut, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran, for the third time since joining the Fed in September, alone advocated for a larger half-point reduction.
The December 9–10 meeting minutes, released Dec 30, are expected to shed light on divisions around the latest rate decision and how policymakers are thinking about the 2026 path. That’s why the market is “bracing” even if spot trading feels quiet: minutes can shift probabilities without a single new data point, especially when liquidity is thin. For gold traders, the signal chain is straightforward: minutes that lean more dovish (greater concern about growth/jobs, more comfort with inflation trajectory) can pressure the dollar and real yields, supporting gold; minutes that read more hawkish (inflation vigilance, reluctance to cut further) can lift yields and support the dollar, often weighing on gold in the short run.
For FX traders, the same minutes can move expectations around how quickly policy divergence may widen or narrow versus peers, and that feeds into EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY positioning. Into year-end, the practical approach is to treat the Fed minutes as a volatility trigger: size down, define invalidation levels, and be wary of “first-move fadeouts” that are common when markets are thin.
