UK job losses, Estimates of employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and other employment statistics in the UK.
Current labour market trends: comparison and analysis: The latest labour market data shows that the number of job vacancies has continued to fall this month, although it is still 11.0% higher than in January-March 2020. The report also shows that the unemployment rate has fallen slightly compared to last year. At the same time, we recorded a moderate increase in the total number of people in employment as well as in the number of registered employees during the last quarter.
Analysis of our Year-on-Year Growth Comparisons dataset, which includes comparisons of Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (PAYE) Real-Time Information (RTI) as well as Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, reveals a more stable picture. The report indicates a decrease in the number of people in employment compared to last year, while the rate of growth in the number of registered employees has slowed over the year.
We also saw a slight slowdown in regular earnings growth year-on-year, falling to 5.4% in the three months to June 2024, although this rate remains relatively strong. On the other hand, overall earnings growth has fallen significantly over the same period, due to the exceptional payments made by the NHS last year
UK Labour Market Statistics July 2024 and the number of registered employees increases
Employee increases between May and June 2024: The number of registered employees increased by 14k (0.0%), and increased by 227k (0.8%) between June 2023 and June 2024.
July 2024 estimates: The initial number of employees on the payroll in July 2024 increased by 24k (0.1%) month-on-month and by 252k (0.8%) year-on-year, to 30.4m.
Volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates: Caution required: The increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates, due to smaller sample sizes, requires caution in quarterly change estimates. These estimates are recommended as part of a set of labour market indicators, alongside labour force employment data and claimant count data.
Estimated UK employment (UK job losses)
The UK employment rate (for people aged 16-64) is estimated at 74.5% in April-June 2024, lower than last year’s estimate, but has risen in the last quarter.
The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 and over) is estimated at 4.2% in April-June 2024, lower than last year’s estimate, and has fallen in the last quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate (for people aged 16-64) is estimated at 22.2% in April-June 2024, higher than last year’s estimate, but largely unchanged from the last quarter.
The number of UK claimants in July 2024 rose both month-on-month and year-on-year, to 1.801 million. From May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions will introduce an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for the full job search requirement. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around 6 months, increasing the number of claimants over that period.
The estimated number of UK job vacancies in May-July 2024 fell by 26,000 quarter-on-quarter to 884,000. Vacancies fell for the 25th consecutive quarter but remain above pre-COVID-19 levels
Earnings growth in Great Britain: A look at changes to June 2024
Employee annual earnings growth
• Regular earnings: The annual growth in average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.4% between April and June 2024.
• Total earnings: The annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.5%. It should be noted that this rate was affected by a comparison with June 2023, when one-off bonuses were paid to the NHS.
Year-on-year growth in real terms
Ordinary wages: Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index including housing costs for homeowners (CPIH)) of ordinary wages was 2.4% in April-June 2024.
Gross wages: Annual growth in real terms of overall wages was 1.6% over the same period. It is estimated that around 100,000 working days were lost due to industrial action across the UK in June 2024. The majority of strikes were in the health and social work sector.
Nominal earnings: Annual growth rates of average weekly earnings – nominal wage In April-June 2024, the annual growth rates of ordinary and overall wages are lower than in the previous three-month period. The overall annual growth rate may be affected by comparison with the period up to June 2023 when the NHS one-off bonus was paid.
Real earnings: Annual growth rates of average weekly earnings – real wage (using the Consumer Price Index for households)With inflation falling, real growth rates have increased over the year. The overall annual growth rate is affected by comparison to the period up to June 2023 when the NHS one-off bonus was paid
Employment rate: (all those aged 16-64)
QoQ change: 0.1 percentage points Since December-February 2020: -1.7 percentage points The employment rate rose QoQ but fell Y/Y, and remains below pre-pandemic rates. Given the increased volatility in the LFS estimates, resulting from the smaller sample sizes achieved, the QoQ change estimates should be treated with additional caution.
Unemployment rate: Unemployment rate (all those aged 16+) QoQ change: -0.2 percentage points Since December-February 2020: 0.1 percentage points the unemployment rate fell QoQ and fell Y/Y but remains above pre-pandemic rates and given the increased volatility in the LFS estimates, resulting from the smaller sample sizes achieved.
