As it directly affects the national and global economies. In light of the continuous changes in the global market, the price of oil reflects a set of economic, political and geopolitical factors that determine its path. In recent days, the price of oil has witnessed negative stability, as it has not witnessed significant changes in its value. However, it remains important to analyze this stability and the future outlook for the oil price.
One of the main factors that have contributed to the stability of the oil price are the current geopolitical tensions. Although there were some tensions in certain areas, they did not lead to major changes in supplies or demand. The Middle East, in addition to developments in Russia and Venezuela, remains one of the most important regions that investors are constantly monitoring.
Also, the global economy faces multiple challenges, including the slowdown in economic growth in some countries and the effects of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. These factors may affect the demand for oil in the short and long term. The price of oil is expected to continue to be stable during the coming period, with the possibility of some minor changes based on global political and economic developments. It is important that investors continue to closely follow developments in the oil market and develop appropriate investment strategies to deal with any potential changes in the future.
Oil price analysis and expected scenario:
Trading below $79.60: The bearish corrective scenario remains effective, and this indicates continued negative pressure on the oil price. The price is expected to target $77.65 as the next target, as this level is considered 61.8% of the previous high level according to the Fibonacci retracement.
Expected trading range for today:
– Support: $77.50
– Resistance: $80.60
Market developments must be carefully followed during the coming period, especially with the impact of geopolitical and economic factors on the price of oil. These conclusions should be taken into account when making future investment decisions.
Based on the study based on the weekly oil price chart, technical forecasts for oil prices can be made for the years 2024 and 2025. Here is a summary of the forecasts:
1. A long-term upward wave: It is noted that the price began a long-term upward wave after the significant decline in oil prices in 2020, as prices in that period reached sub-zero levels for future contracts. After that, prices rose significantly over a period of two years until they reached the highest level recorded at $126.34.
2. Expectations for 2024 and 2025: Based on this analysis, it can be expected that the upward wave of oil prices will continue in the coming years. Global oil demand is likely to continue, supported by the return of economic activity after the Covid-19 pandemic, along with geopolitical tensions that may affect global supplies.
3. Influencing factors: Several factors must be monitored for price forecasts, such as global demand, supply level, international policy developments, and alternative technology. These factors may play a decisive role in determining price trends in the coming period.
4. Additional variables: Additional variables such as environmental challenges and potential environmental legislation, which may affect the demand for oil and the long-term outlook for its prices, should also be taken into account.
Based on the expected scenarios and identified factors, investors and traders should take these expectations into account when making future investment decisions in the oil market. Since recording that peak, and also within two years, up to the present day
Positive factors and negative factors:
Based on the technical analysis presented, the current scenario shows a positive combination that supports the chances of a return to the rise in the price of oil, but there are also negative signals emerging at the moment. Here’s a breakdown:
Positive factors:
1. Rising lows: price recording rising lows indicates that it is heading to restore the main upward trend, which reflects the buyers’ will to push the price higher.
2. Stochastic indicator improvement: An improvement in the stochastic indicator is a sign of negative momentum and heading towards oversold areas, which enhances the chances of upward movement.
Negative factors:
1Short-term bearish correction: price is making a bearish correction of previous bullish wave, and this indicates the presence of short-term selling pressure.
2Approaching the 38.2% correction level: price approaching the 38.2% level, which is located at $80.10, represents a danger to the continuation of the rise, and breaking it may push the price to suffer short-term losses.
Scenario predictions:
– If purchasing power indicators continue to improve and support levels improve, chances of a return to the rise will still exist.
However, the trading structure must be closely monitored, especially as the price approaches correction levels, and the continuation of the upward or downward trend is confirmed upon breaking specific levels.
Traders and investors must take these factors into account when making their trading and investment decisions, and continuously evaluate risks while closely monitoring market developments.
Through the technical analysis provided, the general path of oil prices can be determined and challenged
d Critical levels that must be carefully monitored. Here are the main points:
General path:
1. Long-term upward trend: Oil price follows a long-term upward trend, and it is important to hold on to the price’s consolidation above the $78.25 level for this upward trend to continue.
Basic oil price forecasts for 2024 and 2025
Global oil prices rose by approximately 15% in the quarter ending last March, and continued to rise in April until they were able to record the highest level in six months, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, and the escalation
Fears of supply disruption from the largest oil producing region in the world. This clear rise in global oil prices throughout the year 2024 has led some institutions and banks to expect that the rise will continue and exceed the $100 per barrel barrier this year. Perhaps the lack of spending in the oil sector to increase production necessary to meet global demand will, in turn, be one of the factors driving the rise in prices
Brief analyzes and forecasts of oil prices
• Oil price forecast this week: Oil prices may continue the rise that began last week if crude inventories in the United States continue to decline.
• May oil price forecast: Global oil prices could hit new highs in several months, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate again in the Middle East.
• Oil price expectations in 2024: If oil prices succeed in crossing the $95 per barrel barrier, the rise will continue until the most important barrier of $100 per barrel.
• Silver price expectations in 2025: Next year 2025 may be the year when oil prices record levels above the $100 per barrel barrier, especially if the clear decline in spending on increasing global production continues.
Positive scenario:
– Crossing the $78.25 level will complete the formation of a bullish technical pattern, which may lead to a strong revival of the bullish wave.
This model can succeed in pushing prices towards higher levels, such as $96.60 per barrel, and rushing towards more positive levels such as $100, $110, and $118 per barrel.
