Global oil prices rose slightly during Friday’s trading, recovering some of their previous losses amid global market volatility.
Brent: Brent crude futures rose $0.17, or 0.27%, to $63.50 a barrel, compared to their previous close of $63.33.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $0.36, or 0.6%, to $59.71 a barrel.
The slight rise in prices comes after a week of sharp declines, as trade tensions between the US and China weighed on the outlook for global oil demand. Rising supply in the markets, as a result of OPEC+ plans to push ahead with increased production, also contributed to pressure on prices.
Economic analysts expect oil prices to remain under pressure in the near term, as markets await developments in US-China trade tensions, global supply and demand data, and OPEC+ decisions on production levels.
Supply dynamics are also undergoing shifts. Although we expect OPEC+ members to start increasing production in April 2025, we expect them to produce below their current target path for most of the next two years to limit increases in global oil inventories and support prices. We expect OPEC+ producers to keep crude oil production virtually unchanged this year compared to the 2024 annual average, before increasing production by 0.5 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“We continue to expect non-OPEC+ countries to lead the growth of total liquid fuel production in our forecast, with an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.7 million barrels per day in 2026. We expect the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana to lead production growth during the forecast period. Overall, we expect global liquid fuel production to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration: Lowering oil demand growth forecast for 2025–2026
In its April report, “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth. The IEA now expects global consumption to rise by 0.9 million bpd in 2025 and by 1 million bpd in 2026, a reduction of 0.4 million bpd and 0.1 million bpd, respectively, compared to last month’s forecast.
These estimates, based on economic forecasts from Oxford Economics, made before the recent tariff measures, surround growing doubts about global GDP growth.
Oil prices fell during the first week of April amid escalating trade tensions and shifts in oil production policy. On April 2, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 10 percent tariffs on imports from all countries, with higher rates imposed on selected countries. Just two days later, China retaliated by imposing 34% tariffs on U.S. imports. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced on April 3 that some member countries would offer planned production increases from July to May.
This fast series of ads has sparked significant volatility in the market. By April 7, Brent spot crude prices were down 14% to $66 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects volatility in crude oil and commodity prices to continue, as global markets absorb the implications of a changing trade landscape.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that the lower growth in liquid fuel demand compared to the latest Global Energy Performance Report is concentrated in Asia as a result of US tariffs. Despite this uncertainty, non-OECD Asia continues to be seen as the main driver of global oil demand growth in forecasts.
USOil fluctuates between $60 support and $70 resistance in anticipation of the market
Crude oil markets are still experiencing a sensation, as we try to determine whether oil demand will soon pick up. With tariffs in place and recession likely, oil remains weak.
The sweet light crude oil market showed relative stability during the early hours of Friday morning. But at this point, I think traders are trying to determine whether the $60 level will hold or not. We are definitely in an area that will be interesting in the long run. So, I think you should pay close attention to what’s going on here. However, in the short term, I expect a more sideways volatile market than anything else.
We don’t know how far we’ll go down, because if the price drops below this week’s lows, it could open up a drop to $50 or $50. This of course would be a bad sign for financial assets. On the other hand, if we go up from here, we could head towards 62.50 US cents, maybe even 65 USD. I think volatility and sideways movement are basically what we get here.
Brent looks almost the same, hovering around 63.50 US cents, with the $60 level below it providing support. The $70 level above represents an important resistance barrier. It may be a goal, but with all the factors constant, we should look at this market as a market that is trying, frankly, to find a foothold, just like the light crude market.
But I don’t necessarily think this is a bold-required market. Its effect will appear, it will rise or fall, and you will simply follow it. The USD$60 level seems to be the hard minimum for the Brent market at the moment.
