Oil prices rose today after falling in the previous session, which saw prices drop significantly near a two-week low. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.9%, to $72.50 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 59 cents, or 0.9%, to $68.71. This rise was driven by covering short positions after the decline in prices in previous days as a result of a reduction in demand forecasts from the Organization of the Countries Petroleum exporter “OPEC”.
OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025, citing weak demand in China, India, and other regions. This decision marked the fourth consecutive year the group reduced its forecasts, and it hit the markets. This decline in demand expectations was a major reason for the decline in prices in the previous session. The decline also came amid growing concern about economic growth in China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers.
Despite these bearish expectations, prices have rebounded thanks to short positions coverage, which pushed them slightly higher. However, the strength of the US dollar, which reached a seven-month high, limited the gains. The strength of the dollar has made oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, limiting the rise in prices.
On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its updated forecast for oil demand growth, which will likely be lower than OPEC’s forecast. These forecasts may play an important role in determining price trends in the coming days. While markets are still reacting to this downward outlook, there appears to be caution among investors in the oil markets, with fears that demand will continue to weaken in some key markets.
The impact of the strength of US dollar on oil prices
The strength of the US dollar is one of the main factors that directly affect oil prices in global markets. Since oil is usually priced in US dollars, changes in the value of the US currency affect the cost of oil for foreign investors. When the dollar strengthens, oil becomes more expensive for investors who trade in other currencies, reducing oil demand and pressuring prices down.
When the dollar rises, the price of oil increases relative to other currencies, making it more expensive to buy oil for countries that rely on currencies other than the dollar. This reflects a reduction in oil demand, especially in countries with weak currencies compared to the dollar. As a result, oil markets may see prices fall if demand decreases due to higher costs.
On the other hand, a stronger dollar can affect investment in oil markets. Foreign investors, seeking revenue from oil, may become less interested in buying oil contracts due to the higher costs associated with the dollar. A stronger dollar could also attract more investment to dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. bonds and stocks, creating additional pressure on commodity markets such as oil.2> Moreover, a stronger dollar has other economic effects, such as a reduction in purchasing power in international markets.
Countries that rely on oil imports may find themselves having to pay more for oil, slowing economic growth in these countries due to the high cost of energy. Although oil producers may benefit from strengthening the dollar in some cases, consumers in global markets may suffer from higher prices, limiting them.
Factors affecting global oil price
A number of complex factors influence global oil prices, working interconnectedly to determine their trends in the markets. One of the most prominent of these factors is the global supply and demand for oil. Any change in the level of demand for oil by the world’s largest economies, such as China and the United States, or changes in supply due to production cuts by major producers such as OPEC or non-OPEC countries such as Russia, can significantly affect prices.
When demand for Oil due to economic growth in major countries or due to a shortage of production, prices rise, while increased production or reduced demand leads to lower prices. Another important factor affecting oil prices is geopolitical factors. Political tensions in regions such as the Middle East, where most of the world’s oil reserves are located, can lead to sharp fluctuations in oil prices.
Currency markets also play a big role in determining oil prices, as oil is priced in US dollars. When the US dollar rises against other currencies, oil becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies, resulting in lower demand for oil and therefore lower oil prices. The opposite is also true, as a lower dollar boosts demand for oil. Weather changes and natural disasters are also an important factor in determining oil prices.
Natural disasters such as hurricanes can affect production and transportation, reducing supply and thus increasing prices. Moreover, the oil sector is experiencing effects from technological shifts that may lead to changes in the cost of production or new discoveries from reserves, such as shale oil in the United States, which contribute to influencing prices.
