XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD maintains a strong bullish structure across higher timeframes, with price continuing to print higher highs and higher lows on the H4 and Daily charts. The broader trend remains intact after a sharp impulsive rally, followed by a controlled consolidation phase near recent highs.
On the lower timeframes, price is currently digesting gains after the impulsive upside move, trading sideways below a key resistance zone. Moving averages remain positively aligned, confirming that bullish momentum is still dominant despite short-term consolidation.
Key Resistance Zone
The primary resistance is located around $4,665 – $4,680, where price has stalled multiple times after the recent breakout. This zone represents a short-term supply area and profit-taking region.
Additional resistance levels:
- $4,700 (psychological and technical barrier)
- $4,725 – $4,750 (next upside expansion zone if breakout occurs)
A clean break and hold above $4,680 would likely trigger another bullish extension.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is found at $4,625 – $4,640, aligned with short-term moving averages and prior consolidation structure.
Below that, stronger support sits at:
- $4,585 – $4,600 (key structural and trend support)
- $4,550 (major bullish invalidation level)
As long as price holds above $4,600, the bullish structure remains protected.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
Gold is expected to remain supported while holding above $4,625 – $4,600. A breakout above $4,680 would open the door for a continuation toward:
- $4,700
- $4,725 – $4,750
Momentum continuation favors buyers while price trades above trend support.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
Failure to hold $4,625, followed by a break below $4,600, would signal a deeper corrective pullback toward:
- $4,550
- $4,500 (only if bearish pressure accelerates)
This would be considered a corrective move within the broader uptrend unless daily structure breaks.
Outlook
Gold remains structurally bullish, with buyers firmly in control on higher timeframes. The market is currently consolidating below resistance, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. A confirmed breakout above $4,680 would likely resume the uptrend, while only a sustained break below $4,600 would threaten the bullish bias.
