XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD has undergone a sharp bearish correction after topping out near recent highs, with strong selling pressure driving price decisively lower across all intraday and higher timeframes. The impulsive drop broke the prior bullish structure, signaling a shift toward corrective-to-bearish conditions. Price is now attempting to stabilize after rebounding from a key demand zone, but the broader structure remains fragile.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is located around 4800 – 4850, where the recent breakdown originated and moving averages are converging. This zone is expected to act as a supply area on any upside retracement.
Additional resistance levels:
- 4950
- 5050 – 5100 (major bearish rejection zone)
As long as gold remains below 4850, upside moves are likely corrective.
Key Support Zone
Primary support is holding near 4700 – 4680, where selling pressure eased and price formed a short-term base.
A sustained break below 4680 would reopen downside risk toward:
- 4550
- 4450 (major structural support)
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
Failure to reclaim 4850 keeps downside risk elevated. A break below 4680 could accelerate losses toward 4550 and potentially 4450.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
A sustained recovery above 4850 would signal short-term stabilization, allowing for a deeper corrective move toward 4950 and 5050. Only a reclaim of 5100 would meaningfully weaken the bearish bias.
Outlook
Gold remains under corrective pressure following a strong selloff, with sellers still controlling the broader structure. While a short-term bounce is unfolding, price must reclaim key resistance levels to shift sentiment. Until then, the bias remains cautiously bearish, with downside risks prevailing below 4850.
