XAUUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD is transitioning from an aggressive post-rally correction into a stabilization phase, after a sharp selloff erased a large portion of the prior upside impulse. The recent decline has pushed price back toward the 4,875–4,885 pivot area, where the market is attempting to base and defend structure.
Across intraday timeframes, the rebound attempts remain corrective in nature, with price still trading under nearby recovery resistance, keeping near-term momentum fragile unless bulls reclaim key levels.
Key Resistance Zone
The nearest resistance sits at 4,930 – 4,980, aligned with the latest rebound cap and the zone where selling pressure re-entered after the bounce. Any upside rotation into this region is likely to face supply first.
Additional resistance levels:
- 5,020 – 5,060 (major pivot / breakdown reclaim level)
- 5,120+ (upper recovery cap from the prior distribution)
As long as gold trades below 4,980–5,020, the broader recovery remains vulnerable to another pullback.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is holding at 4,875 – 4,885, the current stabilization floor and a key intraday pivot.
A confirmed breakdown below this base would re-open downside continuation toward:
• 4,800 – 4,820 (next structural support)
• 4,700 – 4,720 (deeper support zone)
A sustained loss of 4,700 would increase risk of a broader downside extension back toward the prior capitulation area.
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
Momentum remains bearish-biased while price holds below 4,930–4,980.
If 4,875 breaks with follow-through, expect continuation toward 4,800–4,820, with room to extend to 4,700–4,720 on renewed risk-off pressure.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
A recovery above 4,980 would be the first sign of a stronger rebound, opening the door toward:
- 5,020 – 5,060 (must reclaim to neutralize downside risk)
• 5,120+ (next upside extension zone if momentum rebuilds)
Until 5,020 is reclaimed, upside attempts are likely to remain corrective and prone to rejection.
Outlook
Gold is attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction, but the structure remains fragile beneath the 4,930–5,020 resistance ceiling. The 4,875–4,885 support zone is the key line in the sand—holding it supports a base-building attempt, while a breakdown would likely accelerate downside toward 4,800 and 4,700.
