XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Overview
XAUUSD is currently trading in a short-term corrective phase within a broader bullish structure. After the recent impulsive rally, price failed to sustain momentum above the highs and entered a controlled pullback.
Across the lower timeframes, momentum has cooled, but no major trend breakdown has occurred. Price action suggests consolidation and digestion of gains rather than a trend reversal.
The medium- to higher-timeframe structure remains constructive as long as key support levels continue to hold.
Key Resistance Levels
Gold is facing overhead pressure near a well-defined resistance zone:
4,330 – 4,350
This area represents:
- The recent swing high rejection
- A supply zone where sellers previously stepped in
- Confluence with short-term moving average resistance on lower timeframes
A sustained break and hold above 4,350 would signal:
- Resumption of the bullish trend
- Upside continuation toward 4,420
- Potential extension to 4,480 if momentum accelerates
As long as price remains below this zone, upside attempts are considered corrective rebounds.
Key Support Levels
Immediate support is located at:
4,300 – 4,285
This zone has acted as:
- A short-term demand area
- A reaction base after the recent pullback
- Alignment with dynamic support from rising averages on H1-H4
If this support holds, price may continue consolidating or attempt a recovery.
Below this, downside risk opens toward:
- 4,250
- 4,200 (key H4 structure support)
A clean break below 4,285 would shift the short-term bias toward deeper correction.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Trend Continuation)
If gold holds above 4,285 and breaks decisively above 4,350, price could resume its broader bullish trend targeting:
- 4,420
- 4,480
This scenario requires improving momentum and strong bullish closes above resistance.
Bearish Scenario (Corrective Extension)
Failure to reclaim 4,350, followed by a breakdown below 4,285, would likely extend the correction toward:
- 4,250
- 4,200
This would still be considered a pullback within a larger uptrend, not a full trend reversal.
Overall Outlook
Gold remains structurally bullish on higher timeframes but is currently moving through a healthy corrective phase after the latest rally.
Price action around 4,285 support and 4,350 resistances will be decisive for the next directional move. Until a breakout occurs, gold is likely to remain range-bound with a bullish bias.
The broader trend remains intact as long as key support levels continue to hold.
