XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD continues to trade within a strong higher-timeframe uptrend, despite short-term consolidation. On the daily chart, price remains firmly above the rising trend structure, with higher highs and higher lows still intact. Recent price action reflects a pause after the latest impulsive rally, as gold digests gains near the upper end of its bullish range. On the H4 and H1 timeframes, momentum has cooled, but pullbacks remain corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting ongoing accumulation rather than trend reversal.
Key Resistance Zone
Upside progress is currently constrained by a well-defined supply area:
- $4,630 – $4,650 (recent highs and repeated rejection zone)
- $4,680 – $4,700 (psychological and extension resistance)
A decisive daily close above $4,650 would likely re-ignite bullish momentum and open the path toward higher extensions.
Key Support Zone
Gold is supported by a layered demand structure beneath current price:
- $4,585 – $4,600 (near-term support and consolidation base)
- $4,550 – $4,565 (prior breakout zone and structural support)
As long as price holds above $4,550, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
Holding above $4,585 keeps buyers in control. A sustained break above $4,650 would confirm trend continuation, targeting $4,680–$4,700 and potentially higher levels as momentum rebuilds.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
Failure to defend $4,585, followed by a clean break down below $4,550, would signal a deeper corrective phase toward lower daily supports. This would still be viewed as corrective unless the higher-timeframe structure is violated.
Outlook
Gold remains technically bullish overall. While near-term consolidation may persist beneath resistance, the broader trend stays constructive as long as key support zones hold. A confirmed breakout above $4,650 would likely mark the start of the next bullish expansion phase.
