XAUUSD |Technical Outlook
Market Overview
XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish trend across higher timeframes, having recently reached new record highs, with price trading well above its key moving averages on the Daily and H4 charts. The broader structure continues to show higher highs and higher lows, confirming that buyers remain firmly in control.
On lower timeframes, however, momentum has slowed after the recent rally. Price is currently entering a short-term consolidation / pullback phase, suggesting the market is digesting gains rather than reversing.
As long as price holds above key support zones, the overall bias remains bullish.
Key Resistance Levels
Gold is currently facing resistance near recent highs:
- $4,410 – $4,425
This zone represents:
- Recent intraday highs
- Short-term supply after an extended impulsive move
- Psychological resistance following the breakout
A clean break and sustained hold above $4,425 would likely open the door for continuation toward:
- $4,450
- $4,480 – $4,500 (upper daily extension zone)
Until that breakout occurs, upside progress may remain gradual.
Key Support Levels
Immediate support is located at:
- $4,380 – $4,360
This area aligns with:
- Rising short-term moving averages
- Previous breakout structure
- Strong intraday demand
A deeper pullback could test:
- $4,330 – $4,300 (H4 trend support)
As long as price remains above $4,300, the bullish structure remains intact. A daily close below this level would be the first warning sign of a larger correction.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Trend Continuation – Preferred)
If gold holds above $4,360 and buyers regain momentum, price is likely to resume its upward move toward:
- $4,425
- $4,450
- $4,480+
This scenario is supported by:
- Strong higher-timeframe trend
- Price holding above rising moving averages
- No clear bearish reversal patterns
Bearish Scenario (Corrective Pullback Only)
If price fails to reclaim $4,425 and breaks below $4,360, a deeper corrective move could unfold toward:
- $4,330
- $4,300
This would still be considered a healthy pullback, not a trend reversal, unless daily structure breaks.
Overall Outlook
Gold remains technically bullish, with the current price action suggesting consolidation after a strong impulsive rally. Buyers continue to dominate the higher timeframes, while short-term charts show controlled profit-taking.
As long as XAUUSD holds above $4,300, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. A confirmed breakout above $4,425 would likely trigger the next bullish expansion.
