XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD experienced a strong bearish impulse after failing to hold above the $4,500–$4,520 region, triggering aggressive selling pressure across intraday and higher timeframes.
The sell-off accelerated sharply, driving price toward the $4,320–$4,350 support zone, where bearish momentum finally stalled.
On the M15 and H1 timeframes, price has transitioned from impulsive selling into a sideways consolidation phase, suggesting that sellers are losing momentum after the sharp decline.
The H4 structure shows this move as a corrective pullback within a broader bullish trend, while the Daily trend remains constructive above major structural support.
Key Resistance Zone
The nearest resistance is now defined by the $4,380 – $4,420 zone, where previous breakdown and short-term moving averages converge.
Additional resistance levels:
- $4,450 (minor intraday supply)
- $4,500 – $4,520 (major rejection zone and trend-continuation barrier)
As long as price trades below $4,420, upside moves remain corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is holding at $4,350 – $4,320, the base of the recent impulsive decline.
Below this level, bearish continuation would expose:
- $4,280
- $4,200 – $4,180 (major higher-timeframe demand zone)
A sustained break below $4,320 would signal renewed downside pressure.
Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Risk)
If price fails to reclaim $4,420, sellers may re-emerge, pushing gold back toward $4,320, with a potential extension toward $4,280 if downside momentum rebuilds.
Bullish Scenario (Stabilization & Recovery)
Holding above 4,320 keeps the structure constructive.
A clean break and hold above 4,420 would open the door for a recovery toward:
- $4,450
- $4,500 – $4,520, where the broader trend will be tested.
Outlook
Gold is currently in a post-selloff consolidation phase after a sharp bearish impulse. While short-term momentum remains cautious, the broader structure stays supported as long as price holds above $4,320.
A decisive move above $4,420 is required to shift sentiment back toward bullish continuation, while a breakdown below support would expose deeper corrective targets.
