XAUUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a broader bullish structure supported by the strong rally that began in late September, but recent price action shows clear signs of momentum exhaustion as the metal struggles to break above the $4,220 ceiling.
Across intraday and higher timeframes, price is developing a sideways consolidation pattern, reflecting weakening bullish pressure after buyers failed to sustain higher levels last week. Despite this slowdown, the broader trend remains intact as long as price holds above key medium-term support areas.
Key Resistance Zones
Gold faces immediate resistance at:
- $4,205 – $4,220 (local top / short-term barrier)
- $4,240 (major breakout zone on H4)
- $4,260 – $4,280 (upper bullish target zone)
A confirmed breakout above $4,220 would likely restore bullish momentum and open the path toward $4,240, followed by $4,260 – $4,280, where stronger supply may appear.
However, repeated failures near $4,220 highlight emerging upside fatigue.
Key Support Zones
Current support levels to monitor:
- $4,185 – $4,190 (intraday support)
- $4,160 (short-term demand zone)
- $4,130 (major pullback support on H4 & Daily)
Below that, deeper downside targets include:
- $4,095
- $4,050 (critical structural support)
A break below $4,130 would signal a shift into a corrective phase and weaken the broader bullish outlook.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
Gold must hold above $4,185 to maintain its bullish structure.
If buyers reclaim control above $4,220, upside targets become:
- $4,240
- $4,260
- $4,280
However, the current market shows slowing momentum, so continuation requires renewed volume and clearer risk sentiment support.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
If price falls below $4,185, corrective pressure may accelerate toward:
- $4,160
- $4,130
A break and close below $4,130 would signal a deeper correction and expose:
- $4,095
- $4,050
Outlook
Gold remains bullish in the bigger picture but is showing growing signs of exhaustion under the $4,220 resistance zone. Market participants are awaiting fresh catalysts, including U.S. inflation data, bond yield movements, and risk sentiment across equities.
- A decisive break above $4,220 is needed for the uptrend to continue.
- A drop below $4,185 would shift price action into a corrective phase.
