XAUUSD | Daily Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD remains in a corrective consolidation phase after a sharp bullish impulse earlier in the trend. Following the strong rally toward record highs, price entered a pullback that found temporary stability above the $4,850 area.
Across the H4 and Daily timeframes, the broader structure remains bullish, but momentum has clearly slowed, with price now moving sideways within a tight range. Lower timeframes (H1 and M15) show choppy price action, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers near a key equilibrium zone.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is located at $4,900 – $4,930, where price has repeatedly failed to sustain bullish continuation. This zone aligns with:
- Prior intraday highs
- Short-term moving average resistance
- Rejection wicks on H1 and M15
Additional resistance levels:
- $4,970
- $5,020 – $5,050 (major bullish continuation zone)
As long as price remains capped below $4,930, upside momentum remains limited.
Key Support Zone
Primary support is holding at $4,850 – $4,865, which has acted as a key demand area during the recent pullback.
A decisive break below this zone would expose deeper downside targets:
- $4,800
- $4,740 – $4,760 (major structural support)
Holding above $4,850 keeps the broader bullish structure intact.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
If gold holds above $4,850 and reclaims $4,930, bullish momentum could resume toward:
- $4,970
- $5,020 – $5,050
A sustained break above $5,050 would confirm trend continuation.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
Failure to hold $4,850 would shift short-term control to sellers.
A clean breakdown could accelerate losses toward $4,800, with extension risk toward $4,750 if selling pressure intensifies.
Outlook
Gold remains structurally bullish but is currently in a consolidation phase following an aggressive rally. Price is compressing between well-defined support and resistance levels, suggesting an impending directional move. A breakout above $4,930 would favor trend continuation, while a loss of $4,850 could trigger a deeper corrective pullback.
